I want to end 2020 with some fun futuristic predictions for the next century. Most of these numbers are completely made up by me but have at least some factual basis from available literature at this time. Will be fun to look at this again a few decades from now.
2020
COVID-19 ravages a largely unprepared human civilization
Unconfirmed signs of life discovered on Venus
AI accelerators begin to become commonplace for automotive applications
Joe Biden elected president
1 TB MicroSD available for under $250 USD
8 core x86 mobile part
SpaceX Starship 12.5km hop test
Arecibo Space Telescope collapses
Cyperpunk 2077 is released, a highly anticipated and realistic game that depicts a curious but somewhat plausible future for humanity
2021
SpaceX Starship reaches orbit
First orbital tourists to fly on a private spacecraft (SpaceX Crew Dragon)
First 5 nm microchips ship
DDR5 becomes commercially available
Tokyo Olympic Games
COVID-19 vaccine generally available and effective
US National Debt reaches $30 Trillion
First exascale supercomputer deployment
NASA Perseverance Rover lands on Mars
The movie Avatar's sequel is finally released
2022
Self driving vehicles begin to operate commercially and out of beta testing in certain large cities
2 TB MicroSD (or equivalent storage format) available for under $250 2020 USD
Utility scale solar power cheaper to deploy than any other type of power generation
Chinese create a national cryptocurrency
James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is launched and deployed
New Glenn rocket launches for the first time
First SpaceX Starship orbital launch
Tesla Cybertruck begins to ship in large volume
2023
After sporadic expeditions in the past, orbital tourism is now a regular thing from this year forward. Seats start at $40M a piece and drop slightly each year after
First 3 nm microchips are fabricated
Starlink constellation is functionally deployed and able to service all useful latitudes
The new Chinese space station is now complete
Donald Trump again runs for president
SpaceX Starship orbital refueling first demonstration
2024
Experimental SpaceX Starship sent to Mars orbit with optics and instruments to scout out landing sites
First element of Lunar Gateway launched
Joe Biden Elected President for a 2nd term
3 TB MicroSD (or equivalent storage format) available for under $250 2020 USD
Imaging of the first earth-sized exoplanet by the JWST
After years of hemorrhaging customers and cash the cable companies finally begin to change their subscription models and channel packages to be more with the times. These channels become almost entirely internet based with innovative subscription models
Median broadband connection in the USA has a bandwidth of 150 mbps down and 20 mbps up
2025
Dear moon flyby occurs, a literal concert in orbit, considered by many around the world as the most inspiring space event since the Apollo 11 moon landing in 1969 or the similar Apollo 8 flyby in 1968
First 1.5nm microchips ship
C02 levels in the atmosphere reach 450 ppm which corresponds to ~1.0C in planet warming
New utility grid storage options make fossil fuel sources of energy further less competitive with respect to wind and solar
US National Debt reaches $35 Trillion
4G network and satellite uplinks takes shape on the moon
It is now apparent that Starlink and other satellite broadband internet-anywhere services have begun a slow but steady de-urbanization of major tech hubs. Top qualified professionals are able now buy up remote and scenic nature property to escape the major cities. This process while slow at first begins to accelerate towards the end of the decade
VR begins to go mainstream. Early adopters have long been using VR for years but this type of entertainment finally becomes immersive and cheap enough to be preferred by many vs other types of gaming experiences
2026
AI Accelerators become an indispensable part of supporting daily life for people in developed countries. Used for speech recognition (dictating spoken commands) and image recognition (memory augmentation)
DDR6 becomes commercially available
New anti-aging therapy to lengthen DNA telomeres
ITER fusion reactor is switched on
Experimental SpaceX Starship sent to Mars to deliver Starlink uplink satellites as well as attempt landing
Heterogeneous computing architectures becoming more common in enterprise. This includes HBM, CPU and GPU-like compute units in the same package
Lunar Gateway completes assembly and is crewed for the first time
The International Space Station's lifespan is extended through 2030
AI accelerators begin to become practical off-the-shelf components for edge compute devices
2027
First International moon landing missions begin to take place. Samples of ice water are mined from the moon and returned to Lunar Gateway and later earth for analysis
4 TB MicroSD (or equivalent storage format) available for under $250 2020 USD
Possible bio-signatures detected on an exoplanet by the JWST
Aquaculture now provides the majority of the worlds seafood
Synthetic beef becomes commercially viable for the first time. Sales of this new food are initially slow
Blockchain technology is now being widely utilized in government, banking and real estate
Petroleum demand by now has mostly peaked for all developed countries. Demand is now declining by single digit percentage points year on year
First artificial gravity experiment has been performed in orbit
2028
SpaceX Mars Cargo Drop
30% percent of automobiles sold globally are now electric drive
New United States president is elected, the youngest in the modern era at 47
Contact with Voyager space probes, currently travelling through interstellar space, is lost
In the United States the income share of the top 10% of earners reaches over 65%
First operational US Navy railgun
Houston to Dallas bullet train begins construction
Several companies begin experimenting with hypersonic and point to point rocket travel in an attempt to win a Department of Defense contract
An entire synthetic human genome has been constructed for the first time
2029
Cost of mass to orbit is now hovering around $25 2020 USD per kg
CAR t-cell therapies are now able to cure many types of cancer
In the United States a decent fraction (5-20%) of all package deliveries to residential locations are now performed by autonomous drones
Vladimir Putin retires with his billions in cash
60 years have gone by since the first moon landing. All of the original Astronauts have passed on
OPEC begins to break up due to plummeting demand
Revolution in Venezuela
2030
Permanent presence on moon by limited number of scientists and astronauts
First brain-computer direct interface is commercially available. Begins deployment to few brave first adopters
Population of the United States reaches 350 million people
Internet access finally becomes a public utility for many large cities in the United States
Scientific probe sent to Venus uncovers life in the clouds
The International Space Station is decommissioned after detaching the Russian modules for commercial purposes
Universal healthcare act with a public option finally passes in the United States
2031
8 TB MicroSD (or equivalent storage format) available for under $250 2020 USD
Hypersonic point to point rocket travel becomes practical on earth for the first time, first tickets are $50k each.
New phased array space telescope launched with a resolution 10x better than any previous space or land telescope
A bio-terror attack occurs in a major western European city
Arctic and Antarctic ice shelf shows noticeable degradation from warming
Synthetic Beef, Chicken and Pork begin gaining greater acceptance for both ethical and economic reasons
2032
International Mars Expedition 1
'Fabricators' hit the market (think more sophisticated 3d printer) capable of building simple circuit boards and ASICs given basic feeds-stock materials
Cost of mass to orbit is now hovering around $10 2020 USD per kg
Vat grown human organ replacements are now becoming a reality
First true Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) commercially available. Although only as smart as an insect, this technology will revolutionize manufacturing as well as menial tasks such as janitorial and construction work
New computing substrate alternative to silicon is engineered, allowing great boosts to chip clock speeds. These chips become the new HPC go-to as they iteratively increase their density
2033
First lunar tourist sets foot on moon
Semiconductor chips begin to give way to quantum ones for certain applications
Undersea mining becomes economically viable, mainly for precious metals and rare earths
The Social Security Trust Fund becomes insolvent and requires the Federal Government to address the issue
Real time satellite aerial imagery becomes available for major cities on web based mapping software
Synthetic blood and plasma replacement are now commercially available
Internet access becomes a public utility in many major metropolitan municipalities
Baby boomers are no longer the largest fraction of most elected positions, ending an unprecedented reign of around 45 years
2034
International Mars Expedition 2
Signs of past life are discovered on Mars for the first time
An Alzheimer's treatment therapy passes FDA approval. This treatment mostly arrests the disease if caught in the very early stages
North pole ice levels become extremely low even in winter
First commercially viable fusion reactor design is completed, tend to be in the single digit megawatt range and located close to cities for consumption. These units are deployed all throughout the next decade and slowly pump the brakes on the rapidly expanding solar and wind industry
2035
Brain-computer direct interfaces are now installed in .0001% of the world’s population
Over 50% percent of automobiles sold globally are now electric drive
The north pole is now virtually clear of sea ice at all times of the year
2036
International Mars Expedition 3
Unemployment due to automation becomes a big issue for many developed economies. In some urban places it is as high as 30% while at the same time in the previous decade it was 5%
2037
Fusion power accounts for 1% of global electricity generation, solar and wind account for 50%
2038
International Mars Expedition 4
Hypersonic point to point rocket travel now becoming commonplace on the surface of the earth
2039
Increasingly sophisticated Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) becomes commercially available, now as smart as the average dog or horse
2040
Permanent presence on mars by limited number of scientists
Brain-computer direct interfaces are now installed in .01% of the world’s population. The installation process is now an outpatient procedure
2041
Autonomous vehicles become the majority of traffic on the road. Consequently most teenage Americans now have the luxury of not having to learn to drive.
2042
First vat-grown human fetuses that carry to full term are created by scientists
2043
First manned Expedition to Outer Solar System, likely Ceres or Titan
Sea levels on earth have now risen approximately 5 feet since the year 2020. This is enough to swamp many ocean micro-nations creating a mid-sized refugee crisis
2045
First privately funded asteroid mining expedition
Signs of purely microbial life discovered 20 light years away on a distant rocky planet
2046
Most types of aging are generally reversible, if you can afford it
2047
Brain-computer direct interfaces are now installed in 1% of the world’s population
Theoretical exotic form of propulsion discovered, experts say this could open up the outer solar system within years
2050
CO2 levels in the atmosphere reach 600 ppm which corresponds to 2.5C in planet warming
Research Station created on Ganymede
2051
First low IQ human-equivalent AGI has been created in a lab sparking excitement and intense theological debate about the future of our species
A new large radio telescope is constructed on the dark side of the moon
2052
Orbital Propellant is now an available commodity
Brain-computer direct interfaces are now installed in 10% of the world’s population
Population of Asia plateaus at around 5.3 billion people
2053
Signs of presumably extinct intelligent life found by radio astronomers 200 light years away. These results are 70% certain and will rely on a future scientific project to confirm the results
2054
First Martian colonial group of 50 people sets off for the red planet
Matt finally retires
2055
Urban rich parts of the world are truly becoming post-scarcity in their existence
Elon Musk dies of a stroke prompting mourning all over the world. His ashes are transported to mars on a later expedition
2056
Second Martian colonial group sets off for the red planet
First average human-equivalent AGI become commercially available. Selling intelligent virtual beings is a very controversial subject for many but due to their expense initial adoption is by large corporations and the super wealthy so many of these concerns are shelved in the short term
AGI quickly becomes ubiquitous and propels certain human populations to a standard of living only dreamt of by previous generations. Though most cannot afford human level AGI, lower levels are easily affordable and revolutionary to society as we know it
2059
Corporation and government R&D needs humans less and less. Automation and AGI finally begin to chip away at the roles of white collar workers for the first time
2060
Brain-computer direct interfaces are now installed in 50% of the world’s population
Population of the United States reaches 400 million people
2061
Massive levels of unemployment among all professions
Universal Basic Income is instituted across the board in the United States
2062
It has been leaked that a corporation has created the first super AGI. Perhaps unsurprisingly many other corporations are close behind it seems. Some governments attempt to democratize access to these AI with extremely limited success
2065
Much of the developed world could now be considered post-scarcity
Human prosperity on earth reaches its peak for many in the developed world
2066
Multiple companies are now exploiting resources in main asteroid belt bringing home many precious metals as well as fissile fuels
2067
First AGI super-intelligent beings are coming into their own, starting many ambitious mega-projects and completing massive amounts of scientific research. The existence of these virtual beings is terrifying to a large portion of the human population. Futile attempts to outlaw and/or regulate these beings are made
2068
Matt reaches the age of 80 (hopefully)
2069
The corporate super AGI have quietly begun to displace their corresponding top level executives and lead visionary engineers to pursue their own agenda
Climate change has increasingly become a huge issue. Crop failures, heat waves and droughts begin to hit large parts of the world. Sea levels rises are threatening most large coastal cities.
2070
One martian colony passes 500 members
2071
First super AGI begin to leave earth for the outer solar system for corporate mega-projects. As these and later AGI evolve in the later decades they will slowly become Humanity's most important legacy
2073
An open source super AGI has been invented. While not as powerful as their corporate counterparts, these new beings at least allow normal humans to benefit directly. These artificial agents require substantial resources to run and maintain so public adoption is somewhat limited, but many become self sufficient after a time
2076
The USA celebrates it's tricentennial
2090
World population plateaus at around 10 billion people
Climate refugee crisis engulfs the world. All nations scramble to sequester carbon and mitigate the effects of warming
First mind upload is completed for a prominent trillionaire at considerable expense. This technology begins to scale and become cheaper and in high demand
2100
C02 levels in the atmosphere reach 800 ppm which corresponds to 4.0C in planet warming. Most mitigation efforts have failed thus far
Martian colony becomes mostly self sufficient
Technology invented to control the climate that is careening out of control on earth begins to be used on other planets in the solar system to make them more habitable
2110
Mind uploading is now affordable to more people though still considerably expensive
2120
First (Human/Machine?) detailed exploration of the Kuiper Belt
Large swaths of Earth near the equator have become practically uninhabitable, many wealthy see the writing on the wall and begin to flee to utopian habitats in orbit
2130
Virtual worlds for uploaded minds begin to be built where you may choose to live in an entirely simulated environment. These uploaded minds may live several lifetimes within a year if they choose to, many opt to hibernate to wait for more interesting times. A small number choose to end things altogether, a la virtual death.
2150
Martian colony passes 5000 members
2180
Biological life as we know it today ceases to exist, humans are mostly biologically based machine hybrids now
2200
Artificial consciousness becomes the official descendants of the human race.
Pockets of unaltered humans continue to exist on earth each living in willful ignorance of the growing off-world AI technocracy. Eventually many of these humans forget their shared heritage with the rapidly ascending machines and hybrids
2400
Last biologically pure human is born
2500
Vast AGI competition for the solar system's resources
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